L. B. ARISTOVA, I. K. SEMENOVA*

On May 31, 2013, the Center for Energy and Transport Research of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences held the third scientific and practical conference "Trans-port and Industrial Potential of the Caspian region countries: state, Problems, Prospects of Integration"at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The forum was dedicated to the memory of the famous scientist, Chief Researcher of the Institute of Physics and Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, Professor O. V. Malyarov, an outstanding researcher and expert.

The conference was held with the aim of expanding mutually beneficial cooperation between the countries in the Caspian region. The main attention was paid to cooperation and partnership in the development of mineral resources in the region, construction and modernization of infrastructure facilities, industrial, oil and gas production and processing facilities.

During the conference, the following issues were discussed: prerequisites for the formation of integration associations of the world; industrial potential of the Caspian region, alternatives to using its raw material potential; transport, industrial and technological cooperation of the Caspian states as a condition for regional security; The Caspian region in the system of Euro-Asian transport corridors; transport infrastructure as a factor of accelerated interstate economic integration and development of innovations in transport and optimization of the distribution of productive forces; pipeline infrastructure; prospects for regional Caspian tourism; education as a factor of integration; the role of the Cossacks in the development of social and economic integration of countries in the Caspian region.

The forum welcomed the Deputy Director of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences V. Ya. Belokrenitsky, who noted that such conferences are an important event that brings together scientists from various research groups and representatives of practical organizations to discuss complex problems at the intersection of history, political science, regional studies, and economics. State programs and large business projects should be implemented after careful study in the institutes of state academies. Science, business, and the country as a whole will also benefit from this.

The greeting of the Director of the V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Management Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences acad was read out. RAS S. N. Vasiliev, which, in particular, stated that scientific expertise of large projects should be mandatory and independent. This will allow us to create methodological groundwork, develop a model apparatus that is relevant to fundamental science. The expert opinion must be resistant to interference and not depend on changes in external conditions.

S. N. Vasiliev emphasized that when developing large-scale systems, there is a problem of interrelated description and analysis of various aspects of the systems ' activities: the processes of selecting goals and making decisions, technological processes, and information processing. For large-scale systems, it is impossible to describe their properties and features at the same level of detail, so such systems are presented as an interconnected set of elements of different levels of detail and stages of development of production and transport facilities, etc. The dynamic nature of large-scale systems development management tasks requires the creation of methods for formalization and optimization: from development scenarios (taking into account target programs, long-term production development plans, management principles and methods of control over the implementation of the plan) before choosing rational production and management structures. Taking into account the dynamics of the development of elements requires the joint use of optimization and simulation models, procedures for choosing rational options for the development of the system.

S. S. Goncharenko in his report "Formation of the Caspian Economic Union as a condition for establishing a new pole of development in Eurasia" focused on the problems of the Caspian region and the Caspian littoral countries in the context of international economic integration

* For N. K. Semenova's article "The Energy vector of Industrialization in the PRC: Strategy, Tactics, and Security", see Vostok (Oricns), 2013, pp. 84-91.

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if there are possible challenges to globalization. The prospects for accelerated economic development and increasing these opportunities were considered, provided that the efforts of the Caspian and neighboring countries are consolidated. The possibilities of forming a new economic pole of Eurasia on the basis of the Trans-Caspian transport and industrial belt with the integration of raw materials, industrial and intellectual potential of the Caspian states were evaluated.

I. A. Gundarov (State Research Institute of Preventive Medicine) Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow) in the report "Central Asian and Caucasian Republics of the CIS: features, dynamics and strategic constraints of development" compared the CIS countries by the dynamics of economic indicators in 2012 and over the past 12 years. The speaker summed up that the leaders are Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Belarus, which have common economic models based on the type of convergent planned-market economy, and the outsider economies are characterized by the dominance of liberal characteristics.

At the plenary session, V. V. Persianov (Moscow) made presentations on "Lessons from the past for building the future: transport". center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow), which analyzed the geopolitical situation of the countries of the South Caspian region.

S. N. Sharapov, Deputy General Director of the Institute of Transport Economics and Development (IERT, Moscow), in his report "A conceptual view on the prospects for the formation of the meridian Trans-Asian railway corridor North Ural coast of the Persian Gulf", explained the relevance of this project. V. F. Tuganov (Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences) emphasized the importance of economic and mathematical approaches in the implementation of the new economic strategy of Russia.

V. A. Tsukerman (Luzin Institute of Economic Problems, KSC RAS) spoke about the importance of strategic hydrocarbon resources in the development of the water transport system of the Arctic and Siberian rivers. L. F. Pakhomova (IB RAS) made a presentation on "Lessons of Innovative development of Southeast Asian Countries: Economics, Technology, state initiative" at the forum. Sun. Zbarashchenko (Committee on Shipping of the Expert Center for Modern Communications, Moscow) touched upon the topic of Russia's transport policy in the Northern Sea Route in the context of environmental safety of the Russian Arctic sector.

Then the conference continued its work in three sections.

Section "Transport infrastructure as a factor of spatial unity of the Caspian region countries". The report "Competition between routes the direction of "North-South" and geopolitical security of Russia in the Caspian region," Deputy Director of the Institute of Management and Information Technologies of the Moscow State Transport University (MIIT), full member of the International Academy of Transport V. P. Kurenkov noted that the Caspian Sea region is becoming a strategic zone of global significance with the prospect of becoming a hotbed of international tension, possibly surpassing the Middle East region in severity. At first glance, this prospect is caused by huge reserves of raw hydrocarbons, estimated to be second only to the Siberian and Middle Eastern fields. Indeed, for most countries and TNCs, it is the economic factor that is the main incentive for involvement in the Caspian zone in order to access new sources of energy resources (for some - due to economic necessity, for others-in order to weaken unilateral dependence on Middle Eastern or Russian oil). At the same time, there is a group of countries for which the importance of this region is not limited to purely economic factors, but is of political and military strategic interest. The speaker stated that the Caspian region is a zone of vital national interests for Russia, and formulated recommendations for a general security concept that would become the basis of Russia's policy in this region.

V. D. Vakhrushev (Moscow State Academy of Sciences) the transcontinental transport corridor "North-South" is part of the system of international transport corridors, the main route of which runs in the direction of India-Iran-the Caspian Sea (European part of Russia) with access to Europe and involves loading the most powerful unified deep-water system. . Cargo delivery to Russian ports from Iran (and in the opposite direction) will effectively compete with the projects of the revival of the Great Silk Road, since cargo can be delivered through Russia and Iran to Europe, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf (Abadan), from where by sea to India, China, etc. The Caspian basin is natural "gateway" between the transport systems of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The report details the following issues:-

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The main existing port infrastructure of the Russian Federation in the Caspian region and the forecast of its development were considered, as it largely ensures the acceleration of goods movement and reduction of transport costs in the MTK system, in particular along the North-South corridor.

The impact on foreign trade of the global economic crisis, reinforced by the administration of the Astrakhan customs, had a negative impact on cargo turnover passing through Astrakhan ports in the Iranian direction, which is decreasing every year, the speaker summed up.

A. Yakushev (Strategy Center) made a report " Analysis of the efficiency and economic security of the construction project of the Caspian - Black water channel/Sea of Azov". The essence of the problem of building the Eurasia sea shipping channel is considered not from the point of view of environmental and technical feasibility, but from the point of view of Russia's strategic and current interests, economic and political. The author doubts the feasibility of implementing the project, despite its external attractiveness. Russia will receive an expensive investment project, the main payback factors and indirect economic effects of which lie on the territory of other states.

In his report "The Azov-Caspian Project: Pros and Cons", A. Lukoyanov (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) reported that in October 2007, during the summit of the Caspian littoral states in Tehran, the issue of building a canal connecting the Black Sea with the Caspian Sea within the framework of the Eurasia project was raised. This project was considered as a powerful impetus for the economic development of the Caspian region. At first glance, the significance of such a project for Iran is obvious, but it has caused ambivalence in Iran, without receiving full support in the Iranian political and even business circles. Russian politicians, unlike Iranian ones, seem to have no doubts about the reasonableness and expediency of building this waterway for Russia.

The implementation of the project has many supporters and opponents. So far, there is no thorough study of the economic side of the issue. The possibility of using such large-scale construction as a means of" laundering " money is not excluded. If the Russian leadership decides to implement the project, many factors will have to be taken into account, and, of course, environmental problems that may arise in the near future and turn into economic losses for the country in the future. Scientists are concerned that there may be a repeat of the "Aral disaster in the Caspian-Black-Azov Sea region".

A.V. Sudyi (IB RAS) considered the prospects of Tatarstan-Iranian cooperation in the context of the development of the Volga-Caspian waterway. The key role of Tatarstan on the Great Volga Road is determined by the geographical location of the republic. On its territory, the most important railway and automobile highways that run from north to south and from west to east intersect. There is also a crossroads of waterways. It is planned to create modern transport and logistics complexes in the lower reaches of the Volga, for example, in the Astrakhan region. As for the southern end points of the Baltic-Volga-Caspian route - the Iranian ports of Anzali and Nowshahr, it is also planned to build modern logistics centers there. Moreover, the largest port of Anzali is already practically connected to the Iranian railway system. The speaker said that the Iranian leadership has repeatedly stated its desire to develop international cargo transit through its territory - both in the east-west and north-south directions. Russia is also interested in the latter of these areas, which is a good basis for Russian-Iranian cooperation in the transport sector, the most important element of which can be cooperation between Iran and Tatarstan for the revival of the Great Volga Road.
In her report "Water resources of the Terek region: potential, exploitation and protection", Z. Kh. Ibragimova (IB RAS) highlighted the historical aspect of the role of the Cossacks in the development of social and economic integration of countries in the Caspian region. U. V. Okimbekov (IB RAS) in his report "Strategic road infrastructure of Afghanistan: state and prospects of development" noted that in case of favorable development of the political situation in Afghanistan and improvement of main roads, transit trade between different countries using trans-Afghan routes, in particular from Central Asia (CA) to Pakistan, Iran, India, etc. conversely, it can be beneficial for all participants.

India is very interested in opening transport links with Central Asia through Iran and Afghanistan, as relations with Pakistan remain cold. Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan are directly or indirectly involved in the construction of its transport infrastructure.

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Cargo transportation carried out by neighboring countries in transit along Afghan roads is insignificant in volume, which is explained by the poor condition of roads in certain sections (the result of many years of military operations), the tense situation in the country as a whole and in its individual provinces in particular. The problem of production and distribution of narcotic substances can have a negative impact on transit cargo transportation.

Presentations on this topic were made by A. A. Tikhomirov (Institute of Economics and Transport Development, Moscow), A. I. Zaboev (Scientific Center for Complex Transport Problems), and M. Yu.Morozova (Institute of Transport Economics and Development, Russian Academy of Sciences).

Section "Innovations in the economy, transport and industrial complex as a non-alternative choice for the integration development of the Caspian littoral states".

In her report "Energy Integration of Central Asia and China", N. K. Semenova (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) reviewed the policy of the People's Republic of China in the field of diversification of foreign energy flows in the Central Asian direction and analyzed possible risks for the implementation of China's energy projects in this region. One of the priorities of China's external energy strategy is the development of intra-continental supplies of oil and gas raw materials from Central Asian states through pipeline transport. Taking into account the growing dependence of China on oil and gas imports, the speaker conducted a three-level analysis of possible threats and security risks for the implementation of energy projects in the region: domestic, second - inter-country, third-sub-regional. The issue of participation of Chinese companies in the energy sector of Central Asian states was considered.

E. I. Pavlova and V. V. Chernova (both GUU) in their report "Environmental aspects of the development of the transport system of the Caspian region" reported that the largest hydrocarbon deposits are concentrated in the eastern part of the Caspian Sea. Possible options for delivering oil and gas from these fields to Europe include laying a pipeline under the Caspian Sea, using tankers for sea transportation of oil and overland railway routes bypassing the Caspian Sea.

Options for using sea and pipeline modes of transport, as well as rail transportation, are associated with significant environmental risks, which lead to degradation of the already fragile Caspian ecological system. However, the environmental impact is taken into account to a very small extent when choosing a cargo delivery option. The main focus is on environmentally unsafe, but economically and politically profitable modes of transportation. Environmental threats to the territories where gas and oil pipelines run are caused by an extremely high risk of large-scale disasters. The loss of the ability of Caspian ecosystems to self-clean, the violation of a balanced existence leads to a deterioration in the living conditions of the population, and the recreational attractiveness for tourists decreases. Thus, environmental problems are closely intertwined with economic and socio-cultural ones. The economic significance of the Caspian Sea's biological and recreational resources may be almost completely lost in the foreseeable future. Coordinated joint efforts of the Caspian littoral states are needed to maintain and restore the Caspian ecosystem.

In the report "Port of Aktau in the economy of Kazakhstan" L. B. Aristova (IB RAS) said that the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, taking into account the significant volume of transportation of national and transit cargo, primarily oil, petroleum products, gas, mineral raw materials, pays great attention to the modernization of the port of Aktau. It is one of the most important points on the route of the Europe-Asia MTC and one of the main transport hubs of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The port plays an important role in the development of the country's economy. International transport corridors passing through the Caspian and Black Seas, Volga, Volga-Don, White Sea-Baltic channels, as well as in the direction of Iran and China directly affect the interests of Kazakhstan and its CIS neighbors. The North-South MTK and the TRACECA MTK pass through Aktau, continuing on to Baku (Azerbaijan) and Poti (Georgia).

During the construction and expansion of the port, the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan took into account the transport and geographical attractiveness of the place, ensuring the greatest economic benefits for the state and the demand for national transport infrastructure and the region. By 2013, Aktau is a modern multi-purpose terminal with a number of technological capabilities that ensure its further development. The port is declared a free economic zone, covers an area of more than 50 thousand square meters, has open areas and 6 thousand square meters of covered warehouses

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premises. This makes it possible to safely store loads of various parameters and effectively manage the container fleet.

In conclusion, the speaker noted that in general, the transport and communications sector of Kazakhstan requires large investments and further modernization. It is necessary to direct significant efforts of the state to improve the operation of transport infrastructure, which will contribute to the country's economic growth.

The report "A new approach to eliminating the threat of an environmental catastrophe and restoring oil-contaminated territories using innovative equipment and technologies on the example of the Caspian Sea and North-Western Siberia" was delivered by E. B. Minchin (EMERCOM of Russia Division for Oil and Oil Product Spill Response). He noted that there is an urgent need for more stringent monitoring of oil pollution both in the open sea and in the coastal zone. It is necessary to make every effort to improve the methods of environmental restoration in the Caspian region. The report described the classical method of carrying out recultivation of oil-contaminated lands and the ecological and economic inefficiency of its use. E. B. Minchin reported on the new method of carrying out recultivation of oil-contaminated lands and the need to introduce a new approach to solving problems of restoring oil-contaminated and waterlogged soils using innovative equipment and technologies.

V. A. Zukerman ("Deep processing of energy raw materials at the extraction sites - the basis for innovative development of the economy of regions and countries, taking into account domestic and foreign experience"), S. Bogdanov and A. V. Bogdanova (both GUU)made presentations on this topic. ("Implementation of innovative projects in the transport sector on the example of using mobile ekranoplans"), E. I. Urazova (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) ("On the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline Project"), I. N. Serenko (IB RAS) ("Development of Information Technologies in Pakistan as a factor of economic globalization"), A. B. Baklitskyy (Institute of Information Technologies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) ("Competition in the Nuclear Energy Market. Example of the Middle East").

Section "Transport as a factor of accelerated social development, territorial development, rapprochement of peoples and tourism development in the Caspian region".

Team of authors: V. G. Sokolov (KINT LLC, Novosibirsk), A. N. Serebryanie (Sib-NIAim. S. A. Chaplygina, Novosibirsk), T. A. Vladimirova (SGUPS, Novosibirsk), S. A. Sokolov (ISC Altaystroyinvest, Barnaul), M. B. Bogatyrev (FGNU S. A. Chaplygin SibNIA, Novosibirsk), I. G. Shapovalov (SAFBD, Novosibirsk) presented the report " Innovative breakthrough of Russia is necessary and possible: high-speed transport systems". It discussed the main problems of innovative development of transport systems in Russia, showed the possibility of multiplicative effects of this development. It was noted that the most important aspect of developing an innovation policy that is adequate to the requirements of the time is innovations that are directly related not only to life support, but also to improving the social security of the population. These include innovations that make it possible to reduce the cost of forming and maintaining transport systems and communication facilities in working order, without which the risk of territorial disintegration of the country and low rates of socio-economic development of regions will become inevitable. The state can and should be the natural and, in many cases, the only customer of such innovations.

In the joint report "Geo-economic prerequisites for the formation of the Caspian HUB transport and logistics cluster in the Republic of Dagestan "by T. A. Prokofieva (JSC ITKOR; Higher School of Economics, Moscow) and N. A. Adamov (JSC ITKOR), it was stated that the system of Euro-Asian transport hubs is particularly important for the Republic of Dagestan at the current stage of development. The MTK has a North-South transport corridor that allows for the passage of foreign trade and transit cargo flows in a multimodal connection on the Northern Europe (Helsinki) route Russia (St. Petersburg-Moscow-Volgograd-Astrakhan-Olya and Makhachkala ports) - Iran (Bandar Enzeli and Bandar Abas ports) - India (Mumbai port).

Despite its extremely favorable geostrategic position and the presence of rich deposits of natural resources of oil, gas shale, coal, polymetals, and construction materials on the territory of Dagestan, the republic belongs to the category of subsidized subjects of the Russian Federation. To reach the international level, the Republic of Dagestan needs to develop its transport and logistics infrastructure and establish mutually beneficial partnerships with Russian and foreign companies interested in developing the transport and logistics services market.

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In conclusion, the authors conclude that the formation of a core network of international transport and logistics centers on the territory of Russia, in the regions located in the zones of attraction to the MTK, combined into regional, national and international transport and logistics systems, will lead to the growth of the regional economy due to business and commercial activity, attracting additional cargo flows and necessary for development investment infrastructure, creating new jobs. Ultimately, the country's gross regional product and gross domestic product will increase, and Russian transport will be integrated into the Euro-Asian and global transport systems.

V. K. Lerner (JSC Soyuzmorniiproekt) in his report" Astrakhan in the system of the international transport corridor "North-South": state, problems, prospects" gave an assessment of potential cargo flows in the Volga-Caspian Sea Shipping Channel for the period up to 2030

N. N. Bulatova (East Siberian State University of Technology and Management) presented the report "Forming a model of cross-border transport infrastructure within the Euro-Asian space", in which she considered the issues of forming a model for organizing cross-border cooperation in the international transport corridor "Mongolian Vector", which unites Russia, Mongolia, and China into a single euro- Asian space. The creation of a land transport bridge between Europe and Asia in the form of the Mongolian Vector International Transport Corridor is one of the strategic prerequisites for the revival of the Great Tea Road and, on this basis, the Asian logistics platform of a new generation, based on new technologies and in new economic conditions.

Foreign researchers B. Asralt, D. Unursaikhan (Engineering and Mechanical Institute of the Mongolian State University of Science and Technology, Ulaanbaatar) made a report on "Exploring the possibilities of Mongolia joining the Asian regional transport Network". It was reported that politicians, economists and researchers in Mongolia pay attention to the theoretical and methodological foundations of creating and developing a new transport and logistics system. In Mongolia, the role of the transport and logistics sector is determined by the influence of internal socio-economic and globalization factors, and accordingly there are requirements to develop and expand transport and road infrastructure and transport networks. The report examined the possibilities of creating transport and logistics distribution centers in Mongolia. The possibility of Mongolia joining the Asian regional cluster network was considered.

Representative of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy (Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan) S. Dultayeva analyzed the "New Silk Road" strategy put forward by the United States in her report "The role of Uzbekistan in the implementation of New Silk Road strategies". The main attention was paid to the economic and geopolitical aspects of this strategy, as well as the positions of Russia and China on this issue. The speaker concluded that the American concept of restoring the Silk Road, which considers unstable and economically underdeveloped Afghanistan as the main communication hub on the entire Eurasian continent, is unrealistic, at least in the medium term. In this regard, it seems appropriate to shift the focus to Central Asia, where the diversification of transport communications is one of the main goals of the foreign and domestic policy of states. And in this regard, Uzbekistan will be able to offer more favorable conditions in the field of security, infrastructure and price balance, taking into account geographical amenities.

Presentations on this topic were made by: A. G. Suleymanyan (MSUPE) - "Opportunities for geopolitical stabilization of the Caspian region", O. I. Zhigalina (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences)- "The impact of the Kurdish initiative on the resource policy and economy of the Middle East region", A.V. Maslennikova (Research Institute of the Eurasian Open Institute)- " Modeling the processes of socio-economic interaction regions with social tensions in mind to search for a sustainable development scenario", I. Yu. Avdakov (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) - "Japanese features of railway transport development: territorial location of infrastructure, rolling stock, innovative technologies", E. B. Bednyakova (State University of Management) - "Opportunities to reduce the impact of transport on the ecology of large cities", L. A. Krotov (Eurasian Transport Innovation Center)"Opportunities for transport and industrial integration of the border regions of Russia and Mongolia".

Poster presentations were read out at the conference: "Trade and economic relations of Siberia with the countries of Asia Minor and South Asia, the Near and Middle East" by G. D. Kovaleva

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(Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production); "The need to diversify the export cargo base of the Caspian region countries in the context of global economic integration" by A. V. Kurbatov (State University of Management) and E. S. Gonchareva (Moscow State University). academy of water transport); G. Y. Ozerova (Moscow State Academy of Water Transport)" Improving the efficiency of transportation of steel products along the Great European Water Ring"; "Trimarans - the sphere of integration shipbuilding of the Caspian littoral countries" G. Y. Khalidov (Euro-Asian Transport Innovation Center, Moscow); "Postgraduate education in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan: legal problems of integration and development prospects" M. T. Gabdualieva (Institute of Legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana); "Vietnam as a support base for the Russian Southern Eurasian Ocean Line" by E. A. Fadeyev (Moscow State Academy of Water Transport); "Cluster Model of China" by P. N. Ovchinnikov (Moscow State University). academy of water transport); "Advanced foreign experience in the formation of integrated SEZs in seaports for the Russian water transport system" SV. Miloslavskaya and B. V. Shcherbakov (both Moscow State University). state academy of water transport); "Environmental problems of the Caspian Sea and their impact on the prospects for tourism development" by S. Sorokin (Moscow State Academy of Water Transport).

At the conference, a report prepared by the late Oleg Vasilyevich Malyarov - "Algorithm for creating a planning system in Russia (using the experience of India)"was read out.

The conference was held at a high scientific level. Its participants represented various regions: Siberia, the Far North, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc. It is noteworthy that the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences began to interact with industry organizations that conduct practical work, taking into account the recommendations of the scientific community, scientific and educational centers.

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